The Spring Market of 2026 - Calls For Growth Stall, Soft Pricing… but there’s a catch
A Note From The Brokerage:
Without some context, it can be easy to get distorted by housing data. For example, home sales in Waterloo Region were up 39% in March of 2026 compared to the previous month of February. Furthermore, inventory is down 11.6% from the same period last year, less homes for sale should make for more competition. That sounds like a rather robust spring market could be developing, right? In short - no, not really it’s more like a silver lining to what has been overall a rough period for Canadian residential real estate. Allow us to explain our perspective.
It is encouraging to see sales volume increasing alongside the traditional Spring market when the majority of residential real estate transactions occur. There was also a modest median sales value growth of .5% from February to March. But year over year, prices have dropped 6.6% in Waterloo Region on average compared to the same month last year. If you look at the twelve month rolling average, prices are down 4.1%. The trend has not been friendly to a market turnaround. TD Economists recently revised their outlook for real estate accordingly.
If we look to equity markets, consumer confidence has remained resilient despite global trade conflicts and geopolitical strife. Historically, interest rates are back to favourable ranges for borrowers. There has been depressed Buyer activity in Ontario since 2023, some of that pent up demand should begin working its way back into housing. Since the price peak of February 2022, markets have been inching back towards affordability. Now may be the time for Buyers to begin migrating back into housing.
So What’s The Catch?
The downturn in housing has also caused a significant downturn in housing construction. Structurally, the province is still under-housed. If regional population growth begins to return or Buyer volume returns to historical levels, we coulr return to chronically low shortages of listing inventory (homes for sale). We do not foresee this as imminent but an underlying trend that has yet to reverse alongside the price correction.
New Construction Homes Just Price Dropped by 13% (or at least in theory)
Due to a one year removal of federal and provincial sales tax on new construction homes, prices have improved considerably. A number of notable builders in town including Activa and Fusion Homes have been able to offer improved affordability with the lifting of the taxes. Did you know Benjamins Realty Inc. may have access to in-house brokerage offers for New Construction homes? Purchasers may be eligible for rebates while utilizing our expert knowledge of housing and the local market. Talk to us today to find out about this limited time offering.
